USL Championship (USA) · Wed, Oct 21 · 21:00 · SC Jacksonville vs Louisville City FC
Likeliest: Louisville City FC win · 73%
Likely score: 1–2
A 73% away win. The market says 67%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Jacksonville11%15%−4
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Louisville City FC73%67%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 66% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 27% | 33% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 90% | 85% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 13% | 18% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 2.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Jacksonville
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 14 · v Birmingham Legion FC (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · v Birmingham Legion FC (H)0-1
- Sep 30 · at Miami FC (A)1-4
- Sep 25 · v Loudoun United FC (H)0-0
- Sep 16 · at Hartford Athletic (A)0-2
Louisville City FC
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Indy Eleven (H)4-1
- Oct 10 · at Charleston Battery (A)2-0
- Sep 25 · at Hartford Athletic (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Loudoun United FC (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v El Paso Locomotive FC (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | SC Jacksonville | Louisville City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 3-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.