Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 24 · 13:30 · SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV
Likeliest: SC Paderborn 07 win · 42%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Paderborn 0742%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Hamburger SV32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Paderborn 07
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at SV Werder Bremen (A)2-2
- Oct 10 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v SC Freiburg (H)0-1
Hamburger SV
LossLossWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)3-2
- Sep 19 · v 1. FC Köln (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-5
- Sep 6 · v 1. FSV Mainz 05 (H)0-5
| Last 10 games | SC Paderborn 07 | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.