Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 5 · 13:30 · SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: SC Paderborn 07 win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 27%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Paderborn 0746%27%+18
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−2
OursMarket
SC Freiburg31%47%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 53% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 73% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 37% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Paderborn 07
DrawWinDraw
- Aug 29 · at 1. FSV Mainz 05 (A)0-0
- Aug 23 · at 1.FC Phönix Lübeck (A)4-2
- May 25 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-1
SC Freiburg
LossWinWinWinWin
- Aug 30 · v SV Werder Bremen (H)4-1
- Aug 27 · v Motherwell (H)4-1
- Aug 23 · at Fortuna Düsseldorf (A)5-1
- Aug 20 · at Motherwell (A)3-1
- May 20 · v Aston Villa (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | SC Paderborn 07 | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 90% |
| Both teams scored | — | 90% |
| Clean sheets | — | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.