Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Sep 20 · 17:30 · SC Paderborn 07 vs TSG Hoffenheim
Likeliest: TSG Hoffenheim win · 60%
A tight one: we make it 60% for the away win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Paderborn 0718%21%−3
OursMarket
Draw22%21%+1
OursMarket
TSG Hoffenheim60%57%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 67% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 64% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 79% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 23% | 27% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Paderborn 07
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 12 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v SC Freiburg (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at 1. FSV Mainz 05 (A)0-0
- Aug 23 · at 1.FC Phönix Lübeck (A)4-2
- May 25 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-1
TSG Hoffenheim
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 17 · at OFI Crete (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)2-3
- Aug 29 · at 1. FC Köln (A)2-3
- Aug 22 · at Erzgebirge Aue (A)4-0
| Last 10 games | SC Paderborn 07 | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.