Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:30 · SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
Likeliest: VfB Stuttgart win · 63%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 63% for the away win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Paderborn 0716%20%−4
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
VfB Stuttgart63%60%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 37% | 40% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 80% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 20% | 25% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Paderborn 07
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 20 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v SC Freiburg (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at 1. FSV Mainz 05 (A)0-0
- Aug 23 · at 1.FC Phönix Lübeck (A)4-2
VfB Stuttgart
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 19 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-2
- Sep 9 · v Viking FK (H)3-1
- Sep 4 · v 1. FC Köln (H)4-1
- Aug 28 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | SC Paderborn 07 | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.