Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Oct 11 · 12:30 · SC Telstar vs ADO Den Haag
Likeliest: SC Telstar win · 46%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Telstar46%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
ADO Den Haag28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Telstar
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 20 · at AZ Alkmaar (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · at SC Heerenveen (A)0-0
- Sep 9 · at FC Twente (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v SC Cambuur (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · v AFC Ajax (H)0-4
ADO Den Haag
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 19 · v SC Cambuur (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at FC Twente (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-3
- Aug 30 · at Feyenoord (A)2-2
- Aug 23 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | SC Telstar | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.