Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Aug 30 · 14:45 · SC Telstar vs AFC Ajax
Likeliest: SC Telstar win · 49%
A 25% draw. The market says 21%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Telstar49%19%+30
OursMarket
Draw25%21%+4
OursMarket
AFC Ajax26%60%−34
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 63% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 40% | +34 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 81% | −30 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 79% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 24% | +42 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Telstar
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 14 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)1-3
- Aug 8 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-1
- May 17 · at FC Volendam (A)2-1
- May 10 · v Heracles Almelo (H)3-0
- May 2 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-1
AFC Ajax
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Aug 27 · v FC Sion (H)5-3
- Aug 20 · at FC Sion (A)4-2
- Aug 16 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-2
- Aug 13 · at Shelbourne (A)2-2
- Aug 9 · at PEC Zwolle (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | SC Telstar | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.