Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Oct 17 · 18:00 · SC Telstar vs Feyenoord
Likeliest: Feyenoord win · 75%
Likely score: 1–2
A 75% away win. The market says 70%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Telstar10%14%−4
OursMarket
Draw16%16%−1
OursMarket
Feyenoord75%70%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 25% | 30% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 90% | 86% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 12% | 17% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Telstar
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v ADO Den Haag (H)2-2
- Sep 20 · at AZ Alkmaar (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · at SC Heerenveen (A)0-0
- Sep 9 · at FC Twente (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v SC Cambuur (H)2-2
Feyenoord
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 14 · v Como (H)3-2
- Oct 10 · v AZ Alkmaar (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · v FC Utrecht (H)5-0
- Sep 13 · at PEC Zwolle (A)7-0
- Sep 9 · at Barcelona (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | SC Telstar | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 3.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.