Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Sep 6 · 12:30 · SC Telstar vs SC Cambuur
Likeliest: SC Telstar win · 56%
We make it 45% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Telstar56%58%−2
OursMarket
Draw20%22%−1
OursMarket
SC Cambuur23%20%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 65% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 80% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 42% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 74% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Telstar
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Aug 30 · v AFC Ajax (H)0-4
- Aug 14 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)1-3
- Aug 8 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-1
- May 17 · at FC Volendam (A)2-1
- May 10 · v Heracles Almelo (H)3-0
SC Cambuur
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Aug 30 · v FC Twente (H)1-4
- Aug 23 · v Feyenoord (H)2-5
- Aug 15 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)1-3
- Aug 7 · v Excelsior (H)0-4
- Apr 24 · v Vitesse (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | SC Telstar | SC Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.