Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Aug 14 · 18:00 · SC Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam
Likeliest: SC Telstar win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 41%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SC Telstar53%41%+12
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Sparta Rotterdam21%33%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 59% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 61% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 67% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 59% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 55% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SC Telstar
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Aug 8 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-1
- May 17 · at FC Volendam (A)2-1
- May 10 · v Heracles Almelo (H)3-0
- May 2 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-1
- Apr 22 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)4-1
Sparta Rotterdam
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Aug 9 · v Feyenoord (H)0-1
- May 17 · v Excelsior (H)2-3
- May 10 · at FC Twente (A)0-4
- May 3 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-2
- Apr 22 · at Telstar (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | SC Telstar | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.