UEFA Nations League · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:45 · Scotland vs Slovenia
Likeliest: Scotland win · 41%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Scotland41%47%−6
OursMarket
Draw33%29%+4
OursMarket
Slovenia26%24%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 41% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 53% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 71% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 66% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Scotland
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 3 · at North Macedonia (A)2-0
- Sep 29 · v Switzerland (H)0-3
- Sep 26 · at Slovenia (A)0-0
- Jun 24 · v Brazil (H)0-3
- Jun 19 · v Morocco (H)0-1
Slovenia
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 3 · at Switzerland (A)1-2
- Sep 29 · v North Macedonia (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · v Scotland (H)0-0
- Jun 7 · at Croatia (A)1-2
- Jun 4 · v Cyprus (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Scotland | Slovenia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-5 | 2-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.