National League (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Scunthorpe United vs Woking
Likeliest: Woking win · 37%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Scunthorpe United36%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Woking37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Scunthorpe United
LossWinLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · at Boston United (A)3-1
- Oct 10 · at AFC Fylde (A)0-2
- Sep 29 · at Barrow AFC (A)0-3
- Sep 26 · v Hartlepool United (H)4-1
- Sep 19 · at Hornchurch (A)0-1
Woking
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Boreham Wood (A)2-3
- Oct 10 · v Harrogate Town (H)0-1
- Oct 3 · at Eastleigh (A)3-1
- Sep 29 · v Solihull Moors (H)2-4
- Sep 26 · at Carlisle United (A)5-2
| Last 10 games | Scunthorpe United | Woking |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.