NWSL (USA) · Sat, Sep 26 · 00:30 · Seattle Reign FC vs Boston Legacy FC
Likeliest: Seattle Reign FC win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Seattle Reign FC38%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Boston Legacy FC36%34%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 66% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Seattle Reign FC
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 20 · at Denver Summit FC (A)1-2
- Sep 17 · at Angel City FC (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Bay FC (H)2-0
- Sep 7 · v San Diego Wave FC (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · v Houston Dash (H)1-0
Boston Legacy FC
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 20 · v Houston Dash (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Washington Spirit (A)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Utah Royals FC (A)2-1
- Sep 1 · v Angel City FC (H)2-5
- Aug 22 · at North Carolina Courage (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Seattle Reign FC | Boston Legacy FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-0 | 3-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.