NWSL (USA) · Sat, Oct 3 · 02:00 · Seattle Reign FC vs North Carolina Courage
Likeliest: North Carolina Courage win · 37%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Seattle Reign FC34%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
North Carolina Courage37%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Seattle Reign FC
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 26 · v Boston Legacy FC (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Denver Summit FC (A)1-2
- Sep 17 · at Angel City FC (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Bay FC (H)2-0
- Sep 7 · v San Diego Wave FC (H)1-0
North Carolina Courage
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 27 · at Utah Royals FC (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v NJ/NY Gotham FC (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at San Diego Wave FC (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Chicago Stars FC (A)6-0
- Aug 29 · at Kansas City Current (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Seattle Reign FC | North Carolina Courage |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-0 | 4-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.