Major League Soccer (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 02:30 · Seattle Sounders FC vs CF Montréal
Likeliest: Seattle Sounders FC win · 58%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Seattle Sounders FC58%62%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%21%+3
OursMarket
CF Montréal19%17%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 65% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 83% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 38% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 79% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Seattle Sounders FC
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 15 · at FC Dallas (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · at New England Revolution (A)3-0
- Oct 2 · v Sporting Kansas City (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · v Minnesota United (H)3-1
- Sep 24 · v Real Salt Lake (H)2-0
CF Montréal
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 14 · v Atlanta United (H)0-3
- Oct 10 · at Toronto FC (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v FC Cincinnati (H)3-1
- Sep 19 · v Columbus Crew (H)0-2
- Sep 13 · at Colorado Rapids (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Seattle Sounders FC | CF Montréal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.