Premier Division (South Africa) · Sat, Oct 17 · 16:00 · Sekhukhune United vs Marumo Gallants FC
Likeliest: Sekhukhune United win · 55%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 49% for both teams to score. The market says 44%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sekhukhune United55%54%0
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
Marumo Gallants FC17%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 39% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 44% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sekhukhune United
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Sep 19 · at Richards Bay FC (A)3-2
- Sep 11 · at Stellenbosch (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v TS Galaxy (H)0-0
- Aug 25 · at Orlando Pirates (A)0-2
- Aug 15 · v Polokwane City (H)2-0
Marumo Gallants FC
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 20 · v Orlando Pirates (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at AmaZulu FC (A)0-1
- Sep 4 · v Polokwane City (H)2-2
- Aug 25 · v TS Galaxy (H)2-3
- Aug 19 · at Mamelodi Sundowns (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Sekhukhune United | Marumo Gallants FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 0-5-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.