K League 2 (South Korea) · Sun, Sep 20 · 10:00 · Seongnam FC vs Hwaseong FC
Likeliest: Hwaseong FC win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Seongnam FC32%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+2
OursMarket
Hwaseong FC38%38%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Seongnam FC
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 13 · at Gyeongnam FC (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Gimpo FC (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Seoul E-Land FC (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Ansan Greeners FC (A)2-1
- Aug 16 · at Paju Citizen FC (A)1-2
Hwaseong FC
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 12 · at Ansan Greeners FC (A)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Cheonan City FC (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Cheongju FC (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · at Jeonnam Dragons (A)0-1
- Aug 15 · at Busan I Park (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Seongnam FC | Hwaseong FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.