K League 2 (South Korea) · Sat, Oct 17 · 05:00 · Seongnam FC vs Suwon FC
Likeliest: Suwon FC win · 50%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Seongnam FC24%27%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Suwon FC50%47%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 36% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Seongnam FC
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 9 · at Cheongju FC (A)1-3
- Sep 20 · v Hwaseong FC (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Gyeongnam FC (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Gimpo FC (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Seoul E-Land FC (H)1-1
Suwon FC
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 9 · v Hwaseong FC (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Jeonnam Dragons (A)3-0
- Sep 13 · v Cheonan City FC (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Yongin City FC (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Busan I Park (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Seongnam FC | Suwon FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-0 | 4-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.