K League 2 (South Korea) · Sun, Oct 25 · 05:00 · Seongnam FC vs Suwon Samsung Bluewings
Likeliest: Suwon Samsung Bluewings win · 61%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Seongnam FC15%19%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Suwon Samsung Bluewings61%57%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 51% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 43% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 81% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 20% | 25% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Seongnam FC
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Suwon FC (H)1-2
- Oct 9 · at Cheongju FC (A)1-3
- Sep 20 · v Hwaseong FC (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Gyeongnam FC (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Gimpo FC (A)2-1
Suwon Samsung Bluewings
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Hwaseong FC (H)3-2
- Oct 11 · v Ansan Greeners FC (H)4-1
- Sep 12 · at Seoul E-Land FC (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Chungnam Asan FC (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · at Gimpo FC (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Seongnam FC | Suwon Samsung Bluewings |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 9-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-1 | 6-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.