K League 2 (South Korea) · Sat, Sep 19 · 10:00 · Seoul E-Land FC vs Daegu FC
Likeliest: Seoul E-Land FC win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Seoul E-Land FC43%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%0
OursMarket
Daegu FC32%31%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 69% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Seoul E-Land FC
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Sep 12 · v Suwon Samsung Bluewings (H)0-1
- Sep 4 · at Cheongju FC (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · at Seongnam FC (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v Paju Citizen FC (H)1-1
- Aug 16 · v Ansan Greeners FC (H)3-1
Daegu FC
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Sep 12 · v Yongin City FC (H)3-1
- Sep 4 · at Paju Citizen FC (A)0-0
- Aug 28 · at Ansan Greeners FC (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · v Busan I Park (H)1-1
- Aug 16 · v Chungnam Asan FC (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Seoul E-Land FC | Daegu FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-2 | 3-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.