K League 2 (South Korea) · Sun, Oct 18 · 05:00 · Seoul E-Land FC vs Gimhae City FC
Likeliest: Seoul E-Land FC win · 64%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Seoul E-Land FC64%68%−4
OursMarket
Draw21%19%+3
OursMarket
Gimhae City FC15%13%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 87% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 32% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 84% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Seoul E-Land FC
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Oct 9 · at Gimpo FC (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Daegu FC (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Suwon Samsung Bluewings (H)0-1
- Sep 4 · at Cheongju FC (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · at Seongnam FC (A)1-1
Gimhae City FC
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v Chungnam Asan FC (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · v Paju Citizen FC (H)0-2
- Sep 13 · at Busan I Park (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Jeonnam Dragons (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · v Yongin City FC (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Seoul E-Land FC | Gimhae City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-2 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.