La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Jan 24 · 17:30 · Sevilla vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Sevilla win · 39%
We make it 54% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sevilla39%33%+6
OursMarket
Draw26%31%−5
OursMarket
Athletic Club35%36%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 41% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 49% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 67% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 48% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sevilla
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Jan 19 · at Elche (A)2-2
- Jan 12 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-1
- Jan 4 · v Levante (H)0-3
- Dec 20 · at Real Madrid (A)0-2
- Dec 17 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-1
Athletic Club
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Jan 21 · at Atalanta (A)3-2
- Jan 17 · at Mallorca (A)2-3
- Jan 13 · at Cultural Leonesa (A)4-3
- Jan 3 · at Osasuna (A)1-1
- Dec 22 · v Espanyol (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Sevilla | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.