La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Apr 11 · 19:00 · Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid
Likeliest: Atlético Madrid win · 47%
A 47% away win. The market says 33%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sevilla31%37%−7
OursMarket
Draw22%29%−7
OursMarket
Atlético Madrid47%33%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 46% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 53% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 67% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 63% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 71% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 53% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sevilla
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Apr 5 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-1
- Mar 21 · v Valencia (H)0-2
- Mar 15 · at FC Barcelona (A)2-5
- Mar 8 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-1
- Mar 1 · at Real Betis (A)2-2
Atlético Madrid
WinLossLossLossWin
- Apr 8 · at FC Barcelona (A)2-0
- Apr 4 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-2
- Mar 22 · at Real Madrid (A)2-3
- Mar 18 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-3
- Mar 14 · v Getafe (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Sevilla | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.