La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Aug 29 · 19:30 · Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid
Likeliest: Sevilla win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 26%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sevilla41%26%+15
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−4
OursMarket
Atletico Madrid34%45%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 54% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 55% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 74% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 37% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sevilla
WinLossLossWinWin
- Aug 22 · at Athletic Club (A)3-1
- Aug 15 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)2-1
- May 23 · at Celta de Vigo (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Real Madrid (H)0-1
- May 13 · at Villarreal (A)3-2
Atletico Madrid
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Aug 23 · v Villarreal (H)2-2
- Aug 19 · v Málaga (H)2-0
- May 24 · at Villarreal (A)1-5
- May 24 · at Villarreal (A)1-5
- May 17 · v Girona (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Sevilla | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.