La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Sep 19 · 19:00 · Sevilla vs Barcelona
Likeliest: Barcelona win · 85%
A 85% away win. The market says 80%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sevilla5%7%−3
OursMarket
Draw11%12%−2
OursMarket
Barcelona85%80%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 75% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 15% | 20% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 95% | 93% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 89% | 88% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 5% | 8% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sevilla
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Sep 16 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · v Valencia (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Espanyol (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Atletico Madrid (H)1-3
- Aug 22 · at Athletic Club (A)3-1
Barcelona
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 16 · v Racing de Santander (H)7-2
- Sep 13 · at Levante UD (A)4-2
- Sep 9 · v Feyenoord (H)5-1
- Sep 6 · at Valencia (A)5-0
- Aug 31 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)5-2
| Last 10 games | Sevilla | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 3.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.