La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Jan 12 · 20:00 · Sevilla vs Celta de Vigo
Likeliest: Celta de Vigo win · 46%
A 46% away win. The market says 36%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sevilla29%35%−5
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−5
OursMarket
Celta de Vigo46%36%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 64% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 65% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 49% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sevilla
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Jan 4 · v Levante (H)0-3
- Dec 20 · at Real Madrid (A)0-2
- Dec 17 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-1
- Dec 14 · v Real Oviedo (H)4-0
- Dec 7 · at Valencia (A)1-1
Celta de Vigo
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Jan 3 · v Valencia (H)4-1
- Dec 20 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
- Dec 17 · at Albacete (A)2-2
- Dec 14 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
- Dec 11 · v Bologna (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Sevilla | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.