La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Feb 14 · 17:30 · Sevilla vs Deportivo Alavés
Likeliest: Sevilla win · 38%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sevilla38%44%−7
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Deportivo Alavés36%25%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 40% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 47% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 75% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 56% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 64% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sevilla
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Feb 7 · v Girona (H)1-1
- Feb 2 · at Mallorca (A)1-4
- Jan 24 · v Athletic Club (H)2-1
- Jan 19 · at Elche (A)2-2
- Jan 12 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-1
Deportivo Alavés
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Feb 8 · v Getafe (H)0-2
- Feb 4 · v Real Sociedad (H)2-3
- Jan 30 · at Espanyol (A)2-1
- Jan 25 · v Real Betis (H)2-1
- Jan 18 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Sevilla | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.