La Liga (Spain) · Sat, May 9 · 14:15 · Sevilla vs Espanyol
Likeliest: Sevilla win · 46%
We make it 54% for both teams to score. The market says 48%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sevilla46%46%0
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Espanyol29%25%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 41% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 48% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 75% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 64% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sevilla
LossWinLossLossWin
- May 4 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-0
- Apr 26 · at Osasuna (A)1-2
- Apr 23 · at Levante (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Atlético Madrid (H)2-1
- Apr 5 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-1
Espanyol
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- May 3 · v Real Madrid (H)0-2
- Apr 27 · v Levante (H)0-0
- Apr 23 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-1
- Apr 11 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-4
- Apr 4 · at Real Betis (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Sevilla | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.