La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Feb 7 · 17:30 · Sevilla vs Girona
Likeliest: Sevilla win · 47%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sevilla47%46%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Girona29%26%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 48% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 74% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 64% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sevilla
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Feb 2 · at Mallorca (A)1-4
- Jan 24 · v Athletic Club (H)2-1
- Jan 19 · at Elche (A)2-2
- Jan 12 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-1
- Jan 4 · v Levante (H)0-3
Girona
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Jan 31 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-1
- Jan 26 · v Getafe (H)1-1
- Jan 16 · at Espanyol (A)2-0
- Jan 10 · v Osasuna (H)1-0
- Jan 4 · at Mallorca (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Sevilla | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.