La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Jan 4 · 13:00 · Sevilla vs Levante
Likeliest: Sevilla win · 37%
A 37% away win. The market says 21%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sevilla37%53%−16
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Levante37%21%+16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 79% | −16 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 47% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 72% | −22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sevilla
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Dec 20 · at Real Madrid (A)0-2
- Dec 17 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-1
- Dec 14 · v Real Oviedo (H)4-0
- Dec 7 · at Valencia (A)1-1
- Dec 4 · at Extremadura 1924 (A)2-1
Levante
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Dec 20 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-1
- Dec 17 · at Cultural Leonesa (A)0-1
- Dec 8 · at Osasuna (A)0-2
- Dec 3 · at Cieza (A)1-0
- Nov 29 · v Athletic Club (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Sevilla | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.