La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Nov 8 · 15:15 · Sevilla vs Osasuna
Likeliest: Sevilla win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Sevilla40%——
OursMarket
Draw29%——
OursMarket
Osasuna31%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sevilla
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Nov 1 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-3
- Oct 28 · at Toledo (A)4-1
- Oct 24 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-2
- Oct 18 · v Mallorca (H)1-3
- Oct 5 · v FC Barcelona (H)4-1
Osasuna
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Nov 3 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
- Oct 29 · at CE Sant Jordi (A)5-0
- Oct 26 · v Celta de Vigo (H)2-3
- Oct 18 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-1
- Oct 3 · v Getafe (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Sevilla | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.