La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Mar 8 · 17:30 · Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano
Likeliest: Rayo Vallecano win · 39%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sevilla37%38%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%30%−6
OursMarket
Rayo Vallecano39%32%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 43% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 50% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 68% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 54% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sevilla
LossDrawDrawWinDraw
- Mar 1 · at Real Betis (A)2-2
- Feb 22 · at Getafe (A)1-0
- Feb 14 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-1
- Feb 7 · v Girona (H)1-1
- Feb 2 · at Mallorca (A)1-4
Rayo Vallecano
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Mar 4 · v Real Oviedo (H)3-0
- Feb 28 · v Athletic Club (H)1-1
- Feb 21 · at Real Betis (A)1-1
- Feb 15 · v Atlético Madrid (H)3-0
- Feb 1 · at Real Madrid (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Sevilla | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.