La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Aug 15 · 19:30 · Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano
Likeliest: Sevilla win · 39%
We make it 47% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sevilla39%42%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%30%−1
OursMarket
Rayo Vallecano33%29%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 42% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 71% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 70% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 59% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sevilla
WinWinWinLossLoss
- May 23 · at Celta de Vigo (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Real Madrid (H)0-1
- May 13 · at Villarreal (A)3-2
- May 9 · v Espanyol (H)2-1
- May 4 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-0
Rayo Vallecano
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- May 27 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-1
- May 23 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-1
- May 17 · v Villarreal (H)2-0
- May 14 · at Valencia (A)1-1
- May 11 · v Girona (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Sevilla | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.