La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Nov 30 · 15:15 · Sevilla vs Real Betis
Likeliest: Sevilla win · 48%
A 48% home win. The market says 32%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sevilla48%32%+16
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Real Betis27%39%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 47% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 61% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 68% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 45% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sevilla
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Nov 24 · at Espanyol (A)1-2
- Nov 8 · v Osasuna (H)1-0
- Nov 1 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-3
- Oct 28 · at Toledo (A)4-1
- Oct 24 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-2
Real Betis
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Nov 27 · v FC Utrecht (H)2-1
- Nov 23 · v Girona (H)1-1
- Nov 9 · at Valencia (A)1-1
- Nov 6 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)2-0
- Nov 2 · v Mallorca (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Sevilla | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-6-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.