La Liga (Spain) · Sun, May 17 · 17:00 · Sevilla vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 47%
A 47% away win. The market says 43%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sevilla29%30%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Real Madrid47%43%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 57% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 41% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sevilla
LossLossWinWinWin
- May 13 · at Villarreal (A)3-2
- May 9 · v Espanyol (H)2-1
- May 4 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-0
- Apr 26 · at Osasuna (A)1-2
- Apr 23 · at Levante (A)0-2
Real Madrid
WinDrawWinLossWin
- May 14 · v Real Oviedo (H)2-0
- May 10 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-2
- May 3 · at Espanyol (A)2-0
- Apr 24 · at Real Betis (A)1-1
- Apr 21 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Sevilla | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.