La Liga (Spain) · Mon, May 4 · 19:00 · Sevilla vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Sevilla win · 40%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sevilla40%39%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Real Sociedad35%33%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 49% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 54% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 67% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 55% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sevilla
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Apr 26 · at Osasuna (A)1-2
- Apr 23 · at Levante (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Atlético Madrid (H)2-1
- Apr 5 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-1
- Mar 21 · v Valencia (H)0-2
Real Sociedad
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- Apr 26 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)3-3
- Apr 22 · v Getafe (H)0-1
- Apr 18 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-2
- Apr 11 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-3
- Apr 4 · v Levante (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Sevilla | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.