La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Mar 21 · 20:00 · Sevilla vs Valencia
Likeliest: Sevilla win · 40%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sevilla40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−5
OursMarket
Valencia34%28%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 40% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 47% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 72% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 59% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sevilla
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Mar 15 · at FC Barcelona (A)2-5
- Mar 8 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-1
- Mar 1 · at Real Betis (A)2-2
- Feb 22 · at Getafe (A)1-0
- Feb 14 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-1
Valencia
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Mar 14 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-1
- Mar 8 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-2
- Mar 1 · v Osasuna (H)1-0
- Feb 22 · at Villarreal (A)1-2
- Feb 15 · at Levante (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Sevilla | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.