La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Sep 11 · 19:00 · Sevilla vs Valencia
Likeliest: Sevilla win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sevilla43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%30%+2
OursMarket
Valencia26%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sevilla
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 6 · at Espanyol (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Atletico Madrid (H)1-3
- Aug 22 · at Athletic Club (A)3-1
- Aug 15 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)2-1
- May 23 · at Celta de Vigo (A)0-1
Valencia
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 6 · v Barcelona (H)0-5
- Aug 30 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-3
- Aug 25 · v Real Betis (H)0-1
- Aug 22 · v Celta Vigo (H)0-0
- May 23 · v FC Barcelona (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Sevilla | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.