2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Oct 18 · 11:30 · SG Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Magdeburg
Likeliest: 1. FC Magdeburg win · 37%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SG Dynamo Dresden36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
1. FC Magdeburg37%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SG Dynamo Dresden
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 10 · at VfL Osnabrück (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Hertha BSC (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)2-2
- Sep 5 · v VfL Bochum 1848 (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at 1. FC Heidenheim (A)3-5
1. FC Magdeburg
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 10 · v Hannover 96 (H)3-0
- Sep 18 · at SpVgg Greuther Fürth (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v 1. FC Kaiserslautern (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Holstein Kiel (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | SG Dynamo Dresden | 1. FC Magdeburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.