2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 19 · 18:30 · SG Dynamo Dresden vs Hertha BSC
Likeliest: Hertha BSC win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SG Dynamo Dresden37%38%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Hertha BSC39%38%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 49% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SG Dynamo Dresden
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 12 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)2-2
- Sep 5 · v VfL Bochum 1848 (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at 1. FC Heidenheim (A)3-5
- Aug 23 · at Westfalia Rhynern (A)6-0
- Aug 16 · v Darmstadt 98 (H)1-0
Hertha BSC
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 13 · at VfL Osnabrück (A)3-1
- Sep 6 · v 1. FC Magdeburg (H)2-1
- Aug 28 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)5-3
- Aug 22 · at 1. FC Saarbrücken (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v 1. FC Heidenheim (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | SG Dynamo Dresden | Hertha BSC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.