2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 5 · 18:30 · SG Dynamo Dresden vs VfL Bochum 1848
Likeliest: SG Dynamo Dresden win · 68%
A tight one: we make it 68% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SG Dynamo Dresden68%45%+23
OursMarket
Draw18%25%−7
OursMarket
VfL Bochum 184814%30%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 58% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 70% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 55% | −23 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 75% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 60% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SG Dynamo Dresden
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Aug 29 · at 1. FC Heidenheim (A)3-5
- Aug 23 · at Westfalia Rhynern (A)6-0
- Aug 16 · v Darmstadt 98 (H)1-0
- Aug 9 · at 1. FC Nürnberg (A)0-3
- May 17 · v Holstein Kiel (H)2-1
VfL Bochum 1848
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Aug 28 · v VfL Osnabrück (H)0-1
- Aug 23 · at SpVgg Greuther Fürth (A)2-1
- Aug 14 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)1-0
- Aug 7 · v Hertha BSC (H)0-1
- May 17 · at Karlsruher SC (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | SG Dynamo Dresden | VfL Bochum 1848 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.