3. Liga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 · SG Sonnenhof Großaspach vs Preußen Münster
Likeliest: SG Sonnenhof Großaspach win · 41%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Preußen Münster33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 14 · at FC Viktoria Köln (A)2-2
- Oct 10 · v SV Waldhof Mannheim (H)1-5
- Sep 19 · at 1. FC Saarbrücken (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · v SC Verl (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at TSV Havelse (A)2-2
Preußen Münster
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 14 · v Fortuna Düsseldorf (H)1-2
- Oct 9 · v Rot-Weiss Essen (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at SV Waldhof Mannheim (A)0-2
- Sep 16 · v 1. FC Saarbrücken (H)3-3
- Sep 13 · at VfB Stuttgart II U21 (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | SG Sonnenhof Großaspach | Preußen Münster |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.