UAE Pro League (UAE) · Sat, Oct 17 · 15:45 · Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ain
Likeliest: Al-Ain win · 45%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai27%30%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Al-Ain45%43%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 41% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 13 · at Al-Ittihad (A)2-1
- Oct 8 · v United (H)2-1
- Oct 2 · v Al-Nasr Dubai (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Hatta (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v Tractor FC (H)1-0
Al-Ain
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 12 · at Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya (A)4-1
- Oct 8 · v Al-Ittihad Kalba (H)0-0
- Oct 2 · v Ajman (H)2-3
- Sep 19 · at Al Wasl (A)2-3
- Sep 15 · v Al-Nassr (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai | Al-Ain |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.