AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Mon, Sep 14 · 16:00 · Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai vs Tractor FC
Likeliest: Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
Tractor FC29%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 10 · at United (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Al-Jazira (H)1-3
- Aug 28 · at Al Wasl (A)1-0
- Aug 22 · v Al-Dhafra (H)2-0
- Aug 15 · at Khor Fakkan (A)5-1
Tractor FC
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 10 · at Esteghlal Khuzestan (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Gol Gohar Sirjan (H)1-0
- Sep 1 · at Shams Azar Qazvin (A)0-0
- Aug 28 · at Chador Malu Yazd (A)2-0
- Aug 24 · v Persepolis FC (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai | Tractor FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.