Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Oct 14 · 19:00 · Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens
Likeliest: AEK Athens win · 38%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shakhtar Donetsk34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
AEK Athens38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shakhtar Donetsk
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 9 · at Veres Rivne (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v LNZ Cherkasy (H)3-0
- Sep 14 · v Chornomorets Odesa (H)2-0
- Sep 10 · at PSV Eindhoven (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Karpaty Lviv (A)2-1
AEK Athens
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · v OFI Crete (H)3-0
- Sep 20 · at NPS Volos (A)2-1
- Sep 17 · v MGS Panserraikos (H)8-1
- Sep 13 · at Asteras Aktor (A)1-1
- Sep 8 · v LASK (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Shakhtar Donetsk | AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 3.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 3-6-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.