Premier League (Ukraine) · Sat, Oct 17 · 15:00 · Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka
Likeliest: Shakhtar Donetsk win · 65%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 74%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shakhtar Donetsk65%74%−9
OursMarket
Draw23%17%+6
OursMarket
Kolos Kovalivka11%9%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 91% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 26% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 83% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 90% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shakhtar Donetsk
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 14 · v AEK Athens (H)3-1
- Oct 9 · at Veres Rivne (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v LNZ Cherkasy (H)3-0
- Sep 14 · v Chornomorets Odesa (H)2-0
- Sep 10 · at PSV Eindhoven (A)1-1
Kolos Kovalivka
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 10 · v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at Kudrivka (A)3-2
- Sep 11 · v Karpaty Lviv (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · at FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (A)2-2
- Aug 28 · v Obolon Kyiv (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Shakhtar Donetsk | Kolos Kovalivka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.