Premier League (Ukraine) · Sun, Sep 20 · 15:00 · Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy
Likeliest: Shakhtar Donetsk win · 42%
A 25% away win. The market says 17%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shakhtar Donetsk42%57%−15
OursMarket
Draw33%26%+7
OursMarket
LNZ Cherkasy25%17%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 43% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 45% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 83% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 43% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 74% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 77% | −14 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shakhtar Donetsk
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 14 · v Chornomorets Odesa (H)2-0
- Sep 10 · at PSV Eindhoven (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Karpaty Lviv (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Polissya Zhytomyr (H)0-2
- Aug 16 · at Metalist 1925 (A)1-0
LNZ Cherkasy
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Sep 12 · v Obolon Kyiv (H)3-1
- Sep 6 · at Dynamo Kyiv (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Veres Rivne (H)0-0
- Aug 16 · v Chornomorets Odesa (H)2-0
- Aug 10 · at Karpaty Lviv (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Shakhtar Donetsk | LNZ Cherkasy |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 80% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.