Premier League (Ukraine) · Sat, Aug 29 · 15:00 · Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polissya Zhytomyr
Likeliest: Shakhtar Donetsk win · 46%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shakhtar Donetsk46%51%−5
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
Polissya Zhytomyr31%23%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 49% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 48% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 77% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 49% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 69% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shakhtar Donetsk
WinLossWinWinWin
- Aug 16 · at Metalist 1925 (A)1-0
- Aug 9 · at FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi (A)2-0
- Aug 3 · v Kudrivka (H)5-1
- May 21 · v Kolos Kovalivka (H)0-1
- May 17 · at Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (A)3-2
Polissya Zhytomyr
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Aug 17 · v Zoria Luhansk (H)1-2
- Aug 10 · v Metalist 1925 (H)3-1
- Aug 2 · at Chornomorets Odesa (A)2-1
- Jul 29 · at FC København (A)1-2
- Jul 23 · v FC København (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Shakhtar Donetsk | Polissya Zhytomyr |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.