Premier League (Ukraine) · Sat, Oct 24 · 15:00 · Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zoria Luhansk
Likeliest: Shakhtar Donetsk win · 84%
Likely score: 2–0
A 84% home win. The market says 79%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shakhtar Donetsk84%79%+4
OursMarket
Draw11%14%−3
OursMarket
Zoria Luhansk6%7%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 94% | 93% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 17% | 21% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 89% | 86% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 94% | 92% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shakhtar Donetsk
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Kolos Kovalivka (H)2-1
- Oct 14 · v AEK Athens (H)3-1
- Oct 9 · at Veres Rivne (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v LNZ Cherkasy (H)3-0
- Sep 14 · v Chornomorets Odesa (H)2-0
Zoria Luhansk
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Chornomorets Odesa (H)2-1
- Oct 12 · at FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv (A)3-1
- Sep 19 · v Dynamo Kyiv (H)0-2
- Sep 13 · at Bukovyna Chernivtsi (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Veres Rivne (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Shakhtar Donetsk | Zoria Luhansk |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 4-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 11% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.