Premier Division (Ireland) · Mon, Oct 12 · 19:00 · Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemian FC
Likeliest: Shamrock Rovers win · 42%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Shamrock Rovers42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Bohemian FC30%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Shamrock Rovers
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 8 · v Drogheda United (H)3-1
- Sep 18 · v Waterford FC (H)3-2
- Sep 11 · at St. Patrick's Athletic (A)0-2
- Sep 4 · v Shelbourne (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Derry City (A)3-3
Bohemian FC
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 2 · at Dundalk FC (A)2-1
- Sep 18 · v Drogheda United (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · at Galway United (A)3-2
- Aug 28 · v Sligo Rovers (H)3-0
- Aug 21 · v Derry City (H)5-3
| Last 10 games | Shamrock Rovers | Bohemian FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.